经济好坏最敏感的指标:互联网科技公司的广告业务收入(Google - Youtube / Meta / Roku (主要靠广告的流媒体公司))
经济好坏第二敏感的指标:银行股财报中的社会零售消费数据(重点关注消费总量和坏账率)。其他科技公司如苹果和微软等电脑生产商的PC产品也可作为指标,但这更受公司战略影响,并不能很好反应总体情况
经济好坏第三敏感的指标:劳动力市场数据(对于美国来说,只要还能工作,就有不差的消费和财务状况)- 具体包括:初请失业金人数,持续申请失业救济金人数
经济强度一个可参考的指标:投行承办的IPO数量
The most sensitive indicator of economic health: Advertising revenue of internet tech companies (Google - Youtube / Meta / Roku (primarily ad-driven streaming companies)).
The second most sensitive indicator of economic health: Social retail consumption data from bank stock financial statements (focusing on total consumption and bad debt rates). PC products from other tech companies like Apple and Microsoft can also be used as indicators, but they are more influenced by company strategies and do not reflect the overall situation well.
The third most sensitive indicator of economic health: Labor market data (for the U.S., as long as one can work, they generally have decent consumption and financial conditions) - Specifically includes: the number of initial unemployment benefit claims and the number of ongoing unemployment relief claims.
A reference indicator for economic strength: The number of IPOs handled by investment banks.