Incident
A few months ago, the directive to phase out over-aged workers began to ease. In March, many cities introduced age restrictions on employment. For instance, men over 60 and women over 50 were not allowed to occupy certain positions on construction sites. This might have stemmed from the fact that over 15% of construction site fatalities involved individuals over 60, even though this age group made up only 1% of the total. This restriction has since been relaxed, primarily due to China's deepening aging problem: those born during the 1962-1973 baby boom (currently the parents of the "Post-90s" generation) are nearing retirement. Meanwhile, individuals aged 65 and above already make up 14.2% of the population, and those aged 60 and above account for 18.9%.
Reflection
Migrant Workers
Typically, migrant workers who come to the city for work would retire when they reach the retirement age. However, two issues arise:
- Migrant workers don't have social security. After being phased out, they lose all sources of income, making it hard for them to stay in cities and almost impossible to return to rural areas (see Reflection 1).
- The employment of migrant workers isn't included in the national unemployment rate statistics. Liu Qiangdong once said, "If you have a piece of land, you have a job. Who cares if that land produces good yields or not?" This group of people is forever forgotten and left to fend for themselves. Moreover, they still have to submit food to the authorities, often at suppressed prices. (Personal note: Skeptical? Look at this year's pork prices: who dares to increase the price when the authority wants a low CPI? Especially when pig production, as per second-quarter economic data, is already high at over 400 million heads, which is still notably less than previous years).
Reflection 1: The reason migrant workers can't stay in cities: high costs. The reason they also can't return to rural areas: the older generation (ages 40-65) lacks land rights. After tax reform, local governments took control of land (seemingly the only domain they fully control, which greatly inflates real estate prices). Up till now, the land ownership details on property certificates still remain blank, as people don't really own the land (hilarious right? a certificate issued by authority even has blank spaces in such important column!). Property developers don't either; only the local government does. Moreover, the masses only possesses a 70-year right to the architectures (concrete and steel) built upon the land. After that, it still no longer belongs to you. (Not long ago, there was a trending topic saying that houses would no longer belong to their owners after 70 years, leading to widespread panic. In response, the central government promptly issued a document to calm the situation, stating that even if the right to use the property no longer belongs to an individual after 70 years, they could still continue to live in it at a low cost (hilarious, they used the word: low cost, instead of “free”). However, there are two serious concerns here: 1. Most of the current houses won't even last 50 years, let alone 70 (as a prominent financial figure once said); 2. If the government runs out of funds, reclaiming the land is entirely legal and compliant).
The primary reason why the older rural population aged 40-65 cannot return is the lack of land rights or, in other words, property rights. High suicide rates among rural women and the elderly can largely be attributed to the deprivation of these property rights. (Expert Wen Tiejun said, the debates on rural-urban, male-female rights opposition, or the discussions about the increasing suicide rates among rural elderly are not primarily about gender opposition or biologically-based gender violence. It's about property rights. During the women's rights movement in 1982, who had heard of high female suicide rates? It's because at that time women began to possess property rights, so even they were very poor, they still had hope and very few people suicided. The current exploitation of rural women and the increased suicides among the elderly arise because their property rights are being stripped away. This is also why the likelihood of women and the elderly returning to rural areas is extremely low).
Age-based Expulsion Order
If migrant workers are phased out, the workforce shortage will worsen. In 2020, the migrant worker population totaled 286 million, with those over 50 making up 26.4%. The average age was 41.1 years, up from 34 years a decade ago. This means younger people are reluctant to do such jobs while the elderly can't. The percentage of migrant workers aged 15-30 has dropped from 34% a decade ago to the current 22%. Many low-income individuals lack suitable job opportunities.
Data from the national economy last month highlighted an alarming 19.3% unemployment rate among those aged 16-24. Survey data indicated that those below 30 only made up a tenth of construction site workers, with those aged 50 being the majority. There's a significant generational gap. Construction sites struggle to attract younger workers, and the few who are there are looking for exits.
Given the impact of COVID, implementing an aggressive age-based expulsion policy, depriving millions of their sole source of income, will only make societal stability and consumer health even more challenging.
Therefore, Anhui's decision to ease the expulsion order was absolutely correct.
Aging
Currently, 14.2% of the Chinese population is aged 65 or above, and 18.9% are 60 or older.
According to population theory, such proportions are imbalanced for a population with an average age of 75 years. Japan is beyond repair and can only face bankruptcy. South Korea might have a chance to survive because of its humble approach to reconciliation.
Aging -> Labor shortage
People born between 1962-1973 are gradually retiring. At present, the 50-59 age bracket accounts for about 25%. Within the next decade, the average annual new retiree count is estimated to be 26 million (currently around 22 million and rising). This contrasts starkly with the annual birth rate of 10 million and 10.76 million new graduates each year! The increasing retiree population should be a primary concern.
2022 is the first year the retiree count surpassed the number of new job seekers. This trend is expected to continue for at least the next five years. (Obviously, unless there's a massive population decline. I initially wondered if the country might turn a blind eye to the large number of elderly deaths caused by COVID. However, they might have later realized that the pandemic could be an opportunity to make money and address the urgent debt issue (in a legitimate way), which might be why they have been rigorously "controlling" it.)
Predictions
- Nationwide relaxation of the expulsion order.
- Continued delay of retirement age.
- Rough estimate: By 2030, around 28% of the population will be aged 65 and above (compared to Japan's 40%, which has lost its vitality). This is assuming no catastrophic wars or changes in policy.