Many of China's monthly macroeconomic figures are announced around the 15th of the following month, especially those related to imports, exports, and investment. However, there are some more frequent indirect data points to reference.
Industry - Predicting Industrial Value Added (Cars, Glass, Coal Chemicals, Steel, etc.)
Use high-frequency production data in place of fixed asset investment data since the essence of investing in fixed assets is to enhance productivity.
Take the automobile industry, for example. We can use the car tire operating rate to estimate the overall production in the auto industry. This operating rate can be indirectly estimated using fixed asset investment, and they have a positive correlation.
In the heavy industry sector, steel is the most crucial because it affects every industry.
- Steel's high-frequency data: Daily crude steel output of key enterprises (Link)
- In the light industry, the textile industry is the largest. The high-frequency data can be represented by the load rate of polyester factories (Textiles, furnishings, etc.) (Data available on Wind platform).
- For industries that aren't heavy nor light, electricity consumption can be an estimator. Power consumption can be estimated by the daily coal consumption of the eight coastal provinces (Currently, about 70% of China's electricity generation is coal-based) (Data available on Wind platform).
These three metrics can be used to fit the industrial value added quite accurately, at least in terms of trending (like if next month will be higher or lower than the current month).
Consumption - Predicting Total Retail Sales
Major consumption: Purchasing cars and houses.
- Passenger car retail volume, published multiple times a month.
- High-frequency data on home appliance renovations can use commercial housing sales data. However, given that few real estate data in China are accurate, use them cautiously - Transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities (Data available on Wind platform).
- (Food) For China, pork is vital. Check the live pig futures prices - the data is definitely high-frequency.
- (Clothing) Keqiao Textile Index (Link 1, Link 2), published weekly.
- Global oil prices: Crude oil is a crucial ingredient for synthetic fibers. Mainstream clothing can't do without it (More than 50% of China's clothing is made from synthetic fibers). Oil prices are also high-frequency data.
Using these data points might make it easier to determine peak positions.
Imports and Exports
Consider ship freight price indices, such as:
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China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (Link), reflecting the freight level and changing trends of China's export container transport market - published every Friday.
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Baltic Dry Index BDI (Link), reflecting the international dry bulk shipping market's freight level and variations. It indicates global raw material demand and supply as well as economic growth and shrinkage trends - published daily.
(Generally believed: A BDI index of 2000 is the breakeven point for shipping companies. Falling below 2000 means most shipping companies operate at a loss - currently around 1129 - implying international trade is weak, but it also presents potential investment opportunities).
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One can also check the South Korean import and export official website because their export data is released earlier than China's, and many of South Korea's export destinations align with China's.