Events

June and July mark the graduation season. This year, it's particularly hard for the 10 million graduates to find jobs, with the unemployment rate for those aged 16-24 reaching close to 19% (and every one knows the real unemployment rate could be around 40% since if a graduate doesn’t say he’s employed, he couldn’t get the diploma - a common trick even in my university).

Meanwhile, nearly 12 million students took the college entrance exam (Gaokao) in 2022.

In Beijing, the difficulty of the middle school entrance exam was reduced → Result is: only those having a perfect score (over 655/660) can attend the best 3 schools, which is extremely unreasonable. News can be found here

Reflections

Based on my readings, I've outlined a primary logic:

Mid-1990s: A surge of people pursued higher education, and this number increased year by year. This trend likely traces back to the 90s when the government adopted policies to reform the Chinese education system, inspired by the American model. After this policy was enacted, vocational education suffered significantly. Previously, almost every county had vocational schools focused on agriculture. After the reform, very few remained operational. This implies that over 90% of schools offering agricultural education collapsed. Industrial vocational education also declined after agricultural vocational education waned. Back then, the common goal was attending university; everyone believed that attending a university elevated one's social status.
In 1997, during the Asian financial crisis, China gradually began to develop an export-oriented economy (which is why foreign language institutions like my school (NO.1 in language research and study) and Guangwai rose in prominence). This crisis led to many orders being canceled and companies going bankrupt, resulting in a large number of graduates being unemployed. Thus, in 1998, a policy to promote junior college student to become undergraduate student was introduced, expanding university enrolment. Essentially, universities became reservoirs for young people who couldn't find jobs. Similar strategies were seen in the 60s-70s when economic downturns led to urban youth being sent to rural areas to rely on collective economies. But since the collective economy was dismantled in the 80s, this option disappeared. Hence, this impactful policy was introduced in 1998.
Consequently, we witnessed the challenges of graduates in this year. The root cause lies in the 1998 expansion of college enrolments. Moreover, there's a deep-rooted Chinese belief that education is noble, and being educated holds a higher social status. This belief, combined with the 1998 policy, led many students to view a university degree as the only valuable outcome after high school. How could parents believe that their children, with a university degree, might need to return to manual labor?
For many, a university degree is a ticket into the white-collar world. This demand (coupled with population growth considerations) spurred many institutions to offer majors like accounting, finance, and computer science. Everyone wished to avoid physical labor and aspired to be white-collar workers. As a result, there was a significant mismatch between supply and demand. These majors were more relevant to the US, not China, because China in essence doesn’t need this many accountants or engineers or bankers etc. (it’s true China needs scientists, but please don’t cultivate scientists at such great cost). This led to labor shortages in a nation where automation isn't as advanced, affecting China's agriculture and manufacturing-driven economy.

To provide some context: over 80% of the US GDP comes from the service sector (primarily finance), so indeed US is capable to employ such numerous white-collar workers. In contrast, China's GDP composition is nearly the opposite (although currently the tertiary sector surpassed 50%, for a long time from the 90s to 2015, it hovered around or below 40%). This period saw a severe misalignment in talent cultivation.

Employment difficulties stem primarily from hasty changes in the educational system: the mismatch between supply and demand. And also the distorted mindset about white-collar jobs (to become superior, you need a degree) further skewed young people's career perceptions.

Therefore, we see the government initiating new reforms (though arguably late). The supply-side reform in education is pushing high school graduates towards vocational technical schools, reviving secondary vocational education, and promoting seamless transitions to advanced vocational education.

Presently, in 2022, the situation is reminiscent of 1997, with economic downturns (visible since 2018-2019 as numerous internet companies flocked to the stock market to raise capital and exit). In this economic decline, internal solutions are nearly unattainable. The oscillation between imported deflation and inflation continues.

To genuinely address these issues, Expert Wen Tiejun believes it's essential to implement cross-cycle adjustments. Drawing from Wen Tiejun's perspective: From China's 2012 strategy for ecological civilization development to the 2017 rural revitalization strategy supporting the major domestic strategic transition towards ecological civilization, significant infrastructural investments have been directed towards villages. Almost every natural village is now accessible through five main routes. This ensures that the abundant ecological resources in villages can be developed. If we earnestly implement urban and rural development strategies, we can foster mass entrepreneurship and innovation in villages, leveraging the experiences of using rural communities as labor reservoirs to cushion economic downturns (again in rural area, hah, but unless paid well, I don’t believe the young people are that easily fooled).

It might be challenging to implement changes after 20 years, but efforts are underway. Reforms in education supply, human resources supply, and the national strategy of diverting investments towards rural communities to promote mass entrepreneurship and innovation are essential to meet current demands.

Predictions

The number of graduates will continue to rise in the next five years, making every year "the most challenging graduation season." (that’s why mom - a high school math teacher, doesn’t care if she will be fired at all: when the low birth rate really impacts her job, she would have already been retired for years)
The exams of getting into undergraduate university from junior college will become more and more difficult (comparatively) in the next 5 years.
Tutoring will face further more strict crackdowns (Update: today Aug 14, 2023, New Oriental - largest tutoring agency in China - recently faced another massive fine from the government).
The emphasis on English will continue to diminish.
Majors like accounting and financial management won't be phased out immediately. However, in the distant future, due to population decline, majors with insufficient enrolment might be discontinued (leading universities reducing their enrolment is almost a certainty).