Words – Zhenning's Place

Every lesson here was learned the hard way

不要赚最后一个铜板，当大佬跑的时候，你最好也要跑
Don't try to earn the last penny. When the big boss leaves, you'd better leave too
不管是做股票交易还是期权交易等，最重要的永远是domain knowledge，而不是高深的随机过程或者什么最优化
Whether it's stock trading or options trading, the most important thing is always domain knowledge, not complex stochastic processes or any kind of optimization
女人大概率都是慕强的，吸引女人的最好办法是变得更强
Women are likely attracted to success or intelligence. The best way to attract women is to excel in your career or demonstrate high intelligence
当别人说自己是因为幸运才成功的时候（包括赌博，交易，买彩票等），绝对不要相信，这只是谦虚罢了。靠幸运赚的钱一定会被实力所亏完
When someone says they succeeded because of luck (including gambling, trading, buying lottery tickets, etc.), never believe it; it's just modesty. Money earned through luck will surely be lost soon due to a lack of real skill (link)
国与国之间的斗争，其实绝大多数时候只是一国之内的上层领导给下层百姓作秀的手段，除非发生能严重损害一国之主利益的事件，比如外部敌人大举入侵等，否则他不太可能有动力去领导军队反击
The struggle between nations is, most of the time, merely a means for the leadership of a country to put on a show for its citizens. Unless an event occurs that could seriously damage the main interests of a nation leader, such as a massive invasion by external enemies, the leader is unlikely to be motivated to lead a military counterattack
真正的安全感永远只有自己能给予自己（莫向外求，因为向外求也没有用）
For both man and woman, true sense of security can come from oneself
放下助人情结，尊重他人命运，也尊重他国命运。少评论，多观察，心平气和面对一切事情
Let go of the urge to help, respect others' journeys as well as nations'. Comment less, observe more, and face everything calmly
曾经我觉得一个王朝才300年实在太短了，站在现在的角度来看，一个王朝能坚持300年简直就是奇迹
 I once thought that a dynasty lasting only 300 years was way too short. But from today's perspective, a dynasty enduring for 300 years is nothing short of a miracle.
从来就没有什么“无产阶级觉醒了”或“广大人民群众在这一刻觉醒了”，有的只是底层人民眼红上层人士的奢靡生活。杀死了黄四郎，还有千千万万个黄四郎
There has never been anything like 'the proletariat has awakened' or 'the vast masses of people have awakened at this moment.' What exists is merely the envy of the lower class towards the extravagant lives of the upper class
只有在中国和类似这样的制度漏洞百出腐败到处都是的国家，才会出现原油期货价格为负数，才会出现员工付费上班，才会出现政府抵制企业给员工发福利，才会出现领导满脑子让提出问题的人闭嘴，才会出现诸如“恶意讨薪”、“恶意回家”、“恶意不工作”、“恶意存钱”等词语，才会出现就业数据不好的时候想个办法创造个新词来让数据好看，或干脆决定直接不公开数据的现象
Only in countries like China, where the system is riddled with flaws and corruption is rampant, would we see phenomena such as negative crude oil futures prices, employees paying to work, government opposition to companies providing benefits to employees, leaders whose first instinct is to silence or purge those who raise questions, the emergence of terms such as "malicious demands for unpaid salary," "malicious going home," "malicious saving money" and "malicious not working", the efforts to invent new terms to make employment data look better when the numbers are not favorable, or even decisions to simply not disclose the data at all
一个大公司的大领导或创始人死了，他的妻子、孩子或亲信如果将这巨额财产捐赠出去或转手相让，此时务必小心谨慎，这家公司很可能马上破产
When a big company's top leader or founder dies, if his wife, children, or confidants decide to donate or decline the enormous wealth, then you must be very careful, as the company may likely go bankrupt soon
在人民群众对未来抱有期望之时，他们会觉得“岁月静好，是因为有人在替自己负重前行”。当人民群众受到压迫或经济不好之时，他们会觉得“自己负重前行的原因是头上的人岁月静好”。可惜，自然法则告诉我们，在任何时候，后者都是正确的，前者只不过是领导者在PUA百姓罢了
When people are full of hope for the future, they may feel that 'if you think the times are peaceful, it is only because someone is bearing the burden for you.' When people feel despair about the huge wealth gap, they will think, 'When you bear the burden, there must be someone riding on your head enjoying the peace.' Unfortunately, the law of nature tells us that at any time, the latter is always true, and the former is merely a case of leaders manipulating the people
我不认为中国的失业率真的很高，因为我刚刚问了周围的同事，他们都说自己有工作！一定是那些别有用心的外国敌对势力想要污蔑中国而编造的谎言！
I don't think the unemployment rate in China is really high, because I just asked my colleagues around me, and they all said they have jobs! It must be lies fabricated by foreign hostile forces with ulterior motives who want to smear China!
领导阶级发现目前国家的主要矛盾是：人民群众日益增长的智商，和领导们的落后套路之间的矛盾
The ruling class has identified the primary contradiction in the country as follows: the increasing intelligence of the masses is at odds with the outdated tactics of the leaders.
在中国历史政治的教科书中，对各种历史事件和共产党参与的事件中总会出现以下的词汇，而直到时代的倒车开到不可扭转之时，百姓才能真正理解这些中文“词汇”的深刻含义：原来自己才是历史的牺牲品

时代的局限
历史的遗留
无奈的抉择
暂时的困难
必要的牺牲
伟大的探索
发展的阵痛
曲折的前进
后人的智慧

In Chinese history and political textbooks, the following vocabulary will always appear in various historical events and events involving the Communist Party. Only when the reversal of time reaches an irreversible point, can the people truly understand the profound meaning of these Chinese "vocabulary": it turns out that they themselves are the sacrifices of history.

Limitations of the era
Legacy issues of history
Reluctant choices
Temporary difficulties
Necessary sacrifices
Great exploration
Growing pains
Twisted progress
Wisdom of later generations
如今网络如此发达的情况下愚民政策效果都这么好，古代没有信息获取渠道的环境下，政府官员随意欺压糊弄百姓的状况可想而知！
In today's era of advanced internet, it's surprising how effective policies of keeping the public uninformed still are. One can only imagine how easy it must have been for government officials in ancient times to deceive and oppress ordinary people when there were no channels for information access!
境外势力是块砖，哪里需要哪里搬
Foreign hostile forces are like bricks, conveniently moved and used wherever needed to explain away problems that don't make sense
计划搞砸了是能力问题，没执行到位是态度问题。在中国，态度问题可远比结果问题严重！
A failed plan is a matter of ability, while poor execution is a matter of attitude. In China, attitude problems are far more serious than having a bad result
前人：要相信后人智慧；后人：这是历史遗留问题！
Previous generations: You must believe in the wisdom of future generations;
Future generations: This is a problem left over from history
中国的社会治理制度：
China's social governance system:
1. 领导：我家的猫便秘了，于是我连夜写了《恢复广大毛毛排便的二十条措施和指导纲领》，让猫猫去领会，可是猫猫看完了还是不拉，请问各位有什么头绪吗？
  Leader: My cat can't poop, so I wrote a document overnight called "Twenty Measures and Guidelines for Restoring the Bowel Movements of Cats," and I asked my cat to study it. But the cat still didn't poop after reading it. Does anyone have any ideas?
2. 出门看到一只小狗摔断了腿，疼的直叫唤，出于善心，我打电话请了兽医，他来之后进行了一系列的检查，然后把小狗的嘴缝了起来。哀嚎声确实不见了，它大概也被医好了吧
  When I went outside, I saw a little dog that had broken its leg and was crying out in pain. Out of kindness, I called a veterinarian. When he arrived, he performed a series of checks, and then he sewed up the dog's mouth. The crying indeed stopped, so I suppose it was probably healed
3. 打断你的腿，再给你一副拐杖，然后告诉你，没有我你连路都走不了，所以你要懂得感恩
  Break your leg, then give you a crutch, and tell you that you can't even walk without me, so you must know to be grateful
4. 世界上最无耻、最阴险、最歹毒的赞美，就是用穷人的艰辛和苦难，当做励志故事愚弄底层人民
  The most shameless, cunning, and malicious praise in the world is to use the hardships and sufferings of the poor as an inspirational story to fool the lower-class people.
颁布婚姻法的目的不是为了让人结婚，而是为了离婚时方便分割财产
The purpose of enacting marriage laws is not to encourage people to get married, but to facilitate the division of property in the event of a divorce
中国政府和中国公司的领导们洗脑百姓和员工时十分相像：
句句不谈薪资，条条不离奉献，桩桩不谈好处，事事皆讲境界；
讲奉献越讲境界越高，比待遇越比心胸越窄；
一谈文化五千年，一说工业刚开始，一讲经济说总量，一问发展才起头
于是：工资确实低，物价确实高，福利确实少，生活确实甜
In China, leaders both in government and firms
Brainwash the masses in many terms:
"Speak not of pay, but of dedication,
Avoid talk of benefits, focus on aspiration.
The more you preach sacrifice, the loftier the ideal,
Discuss less of rewards, more of spiritual appeal.
Five millennia of culture, they proudly cite,
But our industry, they claim, is just taking flight.
Speak of the economy in terms of total size,
But when asked of progress, it's just in its rise."

And so it goes: low wages, it's true,
High prices, indeed, welfare, just a few.
Despite all of this, life is "sweet", who knew?
在中国，当有人跟你说要顾全大局的时候，你往往其实并不在这个局内；当有人跟你说要不惜一切代价的时候，你往往就是这个代价
In China, when someone tells you to consider the overall situation, you often are actually not within this situation; when someone tells you to spare no expense, you often are the expense itself
在很多地方，只要腐败盛行，其实官员们是挺希望发生混乱的。比如西游记中的孙悟空大闹阎王殿，生死簿上乱画一气，其实阎王和各个官员内心开心的不得了呢，因为他们就可以把锅甩给孙悟空好掩盖自己长久以来私自给人增减阳寿的秘密了。甚至在地府本来也有生死簿的备份，好嘛孙悟空一来，备份也都假装被销毁了，这本糊涂账被一种合法合理的方式永久的掩盖了为何不开心！所以说，只要不危及到自己生命，很多时候越贪腐的官员越希望事越大越好，covid，河南水灾，北京和南方的水灾，超高温，其实很多都是对应部门的官员们希望看到的！在古代，每次皇上要派人查粮粮仓就发生火灾，你真信这是天灾？不！这就是人祸！可能唯一的慰藉就是这些粮仓本来就是被蛀虫搬空了 - 好歹没有“浪费”
In many places, as long as corruption prevails, officials often actually hope for chaos. For example, in "Journey to the West," when Sun Wukong wreaks havoc in the Palace of Yama and scribbles all over the Book of Life and Death, Yama and the various officials are actually thrilled inside, because they can then blame Sun Wukong to cover up their long-standing secret of arbitrarily altering people's lifespans. Even in the underworld, there were originally backups of the Book of Life and Death, but lo and behold, when Sun Wukong arrived, the backups were all pretended to be destroyed, and this muddled account was permanently concealed in a legal and reasonable manner - why wouldn't they be happy about that! Therefore, as long as their own lives are not endangered, many times the more corrupt officials hope the bigger the issue, the better; COVID, floods in Henan, floods in Beijing and the South, extreme high temperatures, many of these are what officials in the corresponding departments hope to see! In ancient times, every time the emperor wanted to send someone to check the granaries, a fire would break out. Do you really believe this was a natural disaster? No! It was a man-made disaster! Perhaps the only consolation is that these granaries were already emptied by officials - at least they were not "wasted."
在中国，国家或公司塑造出来的悲剧典型，不是什么苦难教育，也不是用来激励员工向他看齐的，而是让人们看到有人比他们更惨，用来找安慰的！如果这个人逆袭了，就应该打压下去！
In China, the tragic figures molded by the state or companies are not for hardship education, nor are they used to inspire employees to align with them. Instead, they are there for people to see that someone is more miserable than they are, to find comfort in. If this person somehow rises against the odds, they would be suppressed!
改变大多数情况下都是一点点开始的，每次改变5%坚持个几周几个月，然后再慢慢改其他方面。一开始就激烈的想要洗心革面，对个人对国家都是几乎不可能的，且极有可能遭到反噬，让你看不到希望然后堕落下去。对国家而言，改革也基本都是慢条斯理的，看看历史上革命真正成功（不仅仅指推翻前朝，更指推翻后能有效治理百姓与国家）的次数？不可以只盯着学习朝代巅峰和朝代交替时刻的历史，而更应研究更为日常的生活和小幅度的改革
Changes usually start little by little in most situations. Every time, making a 5% change and sticking to it for a few weeks or months, and then gradually changing other aspects. It is almost impossible for both individuals and countries to desire a complete transformation from the very beginning, and it's very likely to backfire, leading you to lose hope and fall into despair. For a country, reforms are generally carried out slowly and methodically. How many times in history has a revolution truly succeeded (not only in overthrowing the previous dynasty, but also in effectively governing the people and the country)? We should not just focus on studying the peak moments and transitions of dynasties, but also examine more ordinary daily life and small-scale reforms
成长于开元天宝时期的人，以为盛世就是常态，谁又能想到他们中的大多数人会死于随后的安史之乱？战前5300万人，战后只剩1600万了
 People who grew up during the Kaiyuan and Tianbao periods thought that prosperity was the norm. Who could have imagined that most of them would die in the subsequent Anshi Rebellion? The population was 53 million before the war, and only 16 million were left afterward
在增量时代，我们要重资产，轻人脉
在存量时代，我们要重人脉，轻资产
In the era when total social wealth is incrementally growing, we should prioritize assets over connections
In the era when total social wealth has stagnated, we should prioritize connections over assets
判断一个人有没有逻辑思考能力，只需要看这个人有没有质疑能力足以。不轻信，有疑问，概念有定义，因果讲证据，这种能力只有挨过社会生活毒打或天生领悟才能真正理解
To assess an individual's capacity for logical reasoning, one need only examine their propensity to question. Possessing a skeptical disposition, harboring inquiries, articulating well-defined concepts, and substantiating causality with empirical evidence—such faculties are typically honed either through the crucible of life's challenges or through innate intellectual acumen
中国有无数苦读十几年的学子，努力考上了最好的大学，考上了最好的硕士，但最终因为身心俱疲，泄了气，找一份工作，就把自己十几年的努力草草交代了。我虽然不属于这类人才，但我也很有类似的经历，当年本科毕业就去了EY简直不可理喻。很多时候我也想躺平，但内心的声音依旧告诉我，要不再努力一下试试，我想看看天亮的样子
China is filled with countless students who have rigorously studied for over a decade, striving to get into top universities and master's programs. Yet, many end up emotionally and physically drained, settling for a job that barely does justice to their years of hard work. Although I am not among this elite group, my own journey bears similarities; it was almost inconceivable that I joined EY right after completing my undergraduate studies. There are moments when I too want to give in and pursue laying flatism, but an inner voice keeps urging me, "Why not give it one more try? I want to see what the dawn looks like"
年轻的时候总喜欢看各种名人演讲，以为能从中汲取到人生哲理和发掘捷径，可后来发现几乎所有的成功经验都如出一辙，必备的品质也都大差不差，这意味着大部分人天生就注定不会成功，因为这些品质根本就不在基因里。后来我想明白了，汲取这些名人的经验如同刻舟求剑一般，套用在当今社会已经晚了，想明白如何有机的把前人的经验和当下的环境结合起来才有意义
When young, I was fond of watching various speeches by famous people, thinking that I could gain life wisdom and shortcuts from them. However, I later realized that almost all success stories sound remarkably similar, and the essential qualities for success don't vary much. This means that most people are inherently doomed to not succeed, simply because these qualities are not in their genes. Later, I came to understand that drawing on the experiences of these successful figures is like marking the boat to find a dropped sword—a method that's outdated in today's society. What truly matters is understanding how to meaningfully integrate the lessons from predecessors with current circumstances.
我真的很喜欢马斯克一句话：Don't underestimate a person that overestimates himeself
I really like what Elon Musk said: Don't underestimate a person that overestimates himeself
什么样的人大概率会一事无成？一个思想深邃的年轻人大概率会一事无成，因为他的灵魂走在了年龄前面。如果你没有去亲身实践你所领悟的道理，这样的道理懂得越多，则你的束缚就越多，你就越割裂，你的道路就会越狭窄
What kind of person is most likely to accomplish nothing? A young person with profound thoughts is most likely to accomplish nothing because their soul is ahead of their age. If you don't put into practice the wisdom you have gained, the more of such wisdom you understand, the more constraints you will have, the more fragmented you will become, and the narrower your path will be
在考虑完成本和收益之后，只做对自己有好处的事，别人问起来，其实只需要找个理由即可
After considering the cost and benefits, only do things that are beneficial for yourself. When others ask about it, you just need to find a reason
很多中国人之所以觉得欧美国家内卷少，主要是因为他们在拿国内种高阶层的标准，去和欧美低阶层比较
Many Chinese people feel that Western countries have less internal competition primarily because they are comparing China's high social strata with the lower strata in Europe and America
混社会的四句真言：
不和小姐玩真爱，不为口号而献身
遇到领导要装傻，遇事先把水浇混
Four Truths in the Game of Life:
Don't seek true love with a lady of the night,
Don't give yourself for mere slogans in sight.
Play dumb when you meet a leader's face,
In trouble, muddy the waters to save your grace
微信头像经常换的人，不一定不专一，但大概率情绪波动比较大，可能常常在悲伤或快乐中切换。这种人可能适合演戏，但一定不适合做交易
People who frequently change their WeChat profile pictures may not necessarily be disloyal, but they are likely emotionally volatile, often oscillating between sadness and happiness. Such individuals may be well-suited for acting, but they are definitely not cut out for trading
很多人的懒是以一种勤奋的方式来表现的，比如个人的面子工程（女人过分的花时间在妆容上而不去思考如何提升自己内在），或者是选择听很多别人的节目然后将其结论不加思考地记住。这种表面上的刻苦学习其实才是真正的懒，因为提升自己的内在只能通过不断地思考，从来没有人因一直追随别人的思路而成功：不是因为别人的结论不好，而是因为他的结论大概率只是特定时期只适合他个人的秘诀
Many people exhibit laziness in a seemingly diligent manner. This can manifest in superficial activities, like an excessive focus on appearance (as when women spend too much time on meaningless makeup without considering self-improvement), or in mindlessly accepting the conclusions of others by consuming their content without personal reflection. This kind of superficial diligence is, in fact, true laziness. Genuine self-improvement can only come through continuous thought and reflection. No one ever succeeded by simply following the ideas of others. This isn’t because their conclusions are faulty, but rather because their insights are often uniquely applicable to their own circumstances at a specific time
到底是领导阶级容易团结起来还是底层人民容易团结起来（路易十四治理国家的例子）？如果我们假定人们最基本的目标都是活着，且领导阶级比底层人民更具有逻辑思维能力的话，那肯定是领导们更容易团结一致对付百姓，因为他们十分清楚最差自己少赚点，做出头鸟风险高收益低还不如继续依附着已经无法摆脱的阶级。同时，在这样一个几乎不存在饿死人的时代，百姓更加珍惜生命不愿拼命，除非必死或有绝对信仰，不然他们不会选择奋起反抗
Is it easier for the ruling class to unite, or is it easier for the lower classes to do so (as illustrated by the example of Louis XIV's governance)? Assuming that the most fundamental goal for all people is survival and that the ruling class possesses stronger logical reasoning abilities, then it's certain that leaders would more easily come together to deal with the populace. They are acutely aware that the worst outcome for them would be a slight loss in earnings; being a trailblazer carries high risk and low reward compared to sticking with their existing, inescapable social class. Meanwhile, in an era where starvation is almost non-existent, ordinary people value life too much to risk it recklessly. They would not opt for resistance unless facing certain death or motivated by absolute belief
政治的本质是统治与被统治，作为统治者，统治本身就是目标，而不是统治得当
The essence of politics is to rule and be ruled. For those in power, the objective is rule itself, rather than ruling well
政治领导要上台则必须控制现金流，来对其关键支持者联盟予以回报，然而一旦为了收买关键支持者和他们的替代者而将政府或公司掏空之后，必须想尽办法让你的支持者们认为你有能力将钱袋子重新填满，不然所谓的“忠诚”将灰飞烟灭
To ascend to political leadership, one must control cash flow to reward key supporters. However, once the government or company has been drained of resources to appease these key supporters and their alternatives, it becomes crucial to convince your backers that you have the ability to refill the coffers. Otherwise, the so-called "loyalty" will evaporate into thin air
结婚如同政治，如果你已有很多资产，则你的伴侣会盼着你早死，如果你没什么资产但工资很高，那你的伙伴则会每天笑脸相迎，生怕你死了。如果你觉得这句话非常的极端，那只能说明你的资产的量还不值得伴侣下狠手
Marriage is like politics. If you already have a lot of assets, your partner will hope for your early demise. If you don't have many assets but earn a high salary, then your partner will greet you with a smile every day, fearing your death. If you find this statement extremely harsh, it only indicates that the amount of your assets is not significant enough to warrant ruthless action from your partner
种一棵树最好的时间是在十年前，其次是现在
The best time to plant a tree was ten years ago; the second best time is now
任何事情，只要对方让你感觉他很着急，或是他一直盯着你，那就一定有妖。比如老板一直催促你把任务完成（过于频繁），这就说明他业务不足，没别的事做了；比如b2b的业务的话连合同都没签呢服务提供方就拼了命的希望赶快开始业务，这就说明要么这个服务不靠谱，要么是他自己也没信心能拿下你；还比如刚收到offer，公司就希望你立刻入职一刻也不耽误。把自己带入对面，想想这件事到底靠不靠谱
In any situation, if the other party makes you feel they are in a hurry or keeps pressuring you, then something is definitely off. For example, if your boss is constantly urging you to complete tasks (too frequently), it indicates that they don't have enough experience in doing business or they have nothing else to do. In the case of B2B business, if the service provider is desperately hoping to start the business even before signing a contract, it suggests that either the service is unreliable or they themselves lack the confidence to secure your business. Another example is when you've just received a job offer and the company wants you to start immediately without any delay. Put yourself in the other person's shoes and think about whether the situation is trustworthy or not
最不应该合作的人就是缺钱的人。缺什么他就会不择手段取得什么
The least suitable person to collaborate with is someone who is short of money. Whatever they lack, they will go to any lengths to obtain it
Truth is not truth, perception is truth.这句话的思想很适用于分析国家政权的矛盾政策
"Truth is not truth, perception is truth". This idea is very applicable for analyzing the contradictory policies of national governments of any countries
中国有句古话叫：要想富，先修路。但是这句话似乎有意忽略了主体和有意忽略了路的修饰词，应该改写为：领导人要想富，得发动各级政府管员多修能够赚钱的路，比如通往贸易中心的路，毕竟只有官员赚到钱了才能让百姓赚一些零头且让他们心存感激。同时摧毁掉那些方便百姓来上访闹市集会的路，以及要多多修建自己能短时间内逃跑的路（北京地下？秘密机场？这可都不是什么秘密了）
The Chinese have an old saying: "To get rich, build roads first." However, this saying seems to intentionally ignore the subject and the adjectives describing the roads. It should be rewritten as: "If leaders want to get rich, they need to mobilize governments at all levels to build profitable roads, such as those leading to trade centers. After all, only when officials make money can the common people earn a little and feel grateful. At the same time, destroy roads that make it convenient for the common people to petition and gather in the city, and build more escape routes" (Beijing underground? Secret airports? These are not secrets anymore)
也许是我的认识不够高屋建瓴，但好像很多朝代（比如元朝）被推翻的时候所犯的一个错误就是对民众一点活路也不给（当然这也许是因为皇帝的制胜联盟或钱袋子已经叛变，本身他们就不希望皇帝继续做下去了）。起码给百姓一点点活路吧，毕竟正常情况下穷人和富人都不会造反，只有中产会，但当小地主阶级的中产也愁饭了，那造反就属实不可避免了
Perhaps my understanding is not comprehensive enough, but it seems that many dynasties (such as the Yuan Dynasty) made a mistake when they were overthrown, which was to give the people no room to survive. This may be because the emperor's coalition or financial supporters had already betrayed him, and they didn't want the emperor to continue in power. At least give the common people a little leeway. After all, under normal circumstances, neither the poor nor the rich will rebel; it's usually the middle class that does. But when even the small landowners who make up the middle class are struggling to make ends meet, rebellion becomes truly inevitable
权力导致腐败，绝对的权力导致绝对的腐败。这句话是对的，但因果链条应该是双向的：权力导致腐败，腐败也导致权力，绝对的权力导致绝对的腐败，但同时绝对的腐败也导致绝对的权力：因为腐败其实本质就是对领导人联盟的利益输送
"Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." This saying is correct, but the chain of causality should be bidirectional: Power leads to corruption, and corruption also leads to power; absolute power leads to absolute corruption, but at the same time, absolute corruption also leads to absolute power: because corruption is essentially the transfer of benefits to the coalition of the leader
彼得林奇之前采访问他如何做股票投资的时候，他回答说：如果你不能在两分钟内说服一个两岁小孩来买你选的股票，那就不要买。他尤其举例说那些依靠复杂技术吹的天花乱坠的公司产品自己尤其不会买，自己只会买简单易懂的比如甜甜圈生产商。我在了解他的背景后觉得他的经验在30年前十分正确，但在今天绝对不适用。他的成名在1975到1990，当时是实体经济蓬勃发展时期，股票价格主要是当下现金流的计算结果，还没有碰上以预期为主要估值基础（债务驱动的发展模式）的互联网技术
In a previous interview, when Peter Lynch was asked about how he invests in stocks, he responded: "If you can't persuade a two-year-old to buy the stock you've chosen in two minutes, then don't buy it." He particularly cited that he would especially not buy companies that rely on complex technologies and give dazzling presentations. Instead, he would only buy something simple and easy to understand, like a doughnut manufacturer. After understanding his background, I feel his experience was very accurate 30 years ago but is absolutely not applicable today. He gained fame from 1977 to 1990 (29% compound annual return rate), a period when the real economy was booming. Stock prices were mainly the result of current cash flow calculations and had not yet encountered the internet technologies that are valued mainly on the basis of future expectations (a debt-driven or investment-driven development model)
不要试图通过读一个人的诸多著作就以为可以学习到他思维的精华。你写一些文章后就明白了，无论怎么写都不可能完美的表达出自己脑中的思考，甚至可能连七八分之一都不到。这可能是因为人脑的思考过程是极度高维的或复杂如神经网络，对问题的思考是非常复杂的过程，而万物一旦写下来都会被压扁成1维，自然丢失极多信息
Do not attempt to glean the essence of someone's thought process solely by reading their numerous works. Once you write some articles, you'll realize that no matter how hard you try, it's nearly impossible to perfectly express the thoughts in your mind - in fact, you may not even capture one-tenth of it. This could be because the human brain thinks in an extremely high-dimensional or complex neural network-like fashion. The process of contemplating issues is incredibly intricate, and when those thoughts are reduced to one dimension by writing them down, a significant amount of information is inevitably lost
理解当下宏观经济领域的级别：
1. 知道当下发生事件的具体经过和结果
2. 有分析的理论依据，有基础历史金融政治经济和数学（博弈论与衍生品）基础
3. 能在历史上找到类似的事件或现象 - 真的，没有什么是以前没经历过的，只不过换了个皮肤罢了
4. 能在当下做出走势的预测，能令人信服，并不需要真的预测准
5. 最高境界：能做出政策的预判 - 我并不认为在一个人与人相对抗的社会，做出一个与世无争的成功的量化策略是件难事，但准确的做出政治判断需要多得多的经验与智慧
Understanding the Current Levels in the Macroeconomic Field:
1. Know the specific details and outcomes of current events
2. Have an analytical theoretical basis, with foundational knowledge in history, finance, politics, economics, and mathematics (game theory and derivatives)
3. Be able to find similar events or phenomena in history - truly, nothing is unprecedented, it's just dressed in different clothes
4. Be capable of making current trend predictions that are convincing, without necessarily being accurate
5. The highest level: Be able to make policy forecasts - I don't think it's difficult to formulate a non-confrontational, successful quantitative strategy in a society where people are pitted against each other, but making accurate political judgments requires much more experience and wisdom
谁控制了过去就能控制现在，谁控制了现在就能控制过去
Who controls the past controls the present;
Who controls the present controls the past.
幸好中国文字与文化博大精深，即使经过了新文化运动与文革，即使我国目前实施的敏感词禁言、审核系统、复杂词汇简单化重复化、消灭引发思考的文章、抓住乱说话的人等，也不能很快地消灭千百年来形成的语言文明。但让我揪心的是，随着手机与算法的普及，人们在以一种史无前例的速度逐渐的失去思考能力。我们既然能从文言时代仅花七十年就完全步入简体普通话时代，又为何不能再花70年甚至五十年从简体普通话时代跃迁到仅靠一本1984中“薄薄的新版newspeak dictionary”就能涵盖所有语言内容的时代呢？也确实没错，对领导来说最好的语言就是那种简单易懂、词汇极少、不引发思考、看到即懂如何去做的思维系统 - 毕竟，他们要宣传的是：并不是思考会导致有病，而是思考本身就是病
Fortunately, the richness and depth of Chinese characters and culture have survived through the New Culture Movement and the Cultural Revolution. Even with current implementations like sensitive word bans, auditing systems, simplification and repetition of complex vocabulary, elimination of thought-provoking articles, and arrests for speaking out of line, it's impossible to quickly erase the linguistic civilization formed over thousands of years. What concerns me, however, is that with the proliferation of smartphones and algorithms, people are losing their ability to think at an unprecedented rate. If we could transition from Classical Chinese to Simplified Mandarin in just seventy years, why can't we leap to an era where all linguistic content can be covered by the "thin new edition of the Newspeak dictionary" from George Orwell's 1984 in another 70 or even 50 years? Indeed, the ideal language for leaders is one that is simple, easy to understand, with very limited vocabulary, that doesn't provoke thought but instantly instructs what to do. After all, what they want to propagate is not that thinking leads to illness, but that thinking itself is the illness
"War is Pease; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
一个人做任何事情总有两个理由:
一个好的理由，和一个真正的理由
There are always two reasons why a person does anything:
a good reason and the real reason
一个人并不会因为从事正义的职业就变得正义
A person doesn't become righteous simply by engaging in a righteous profession
我真切的感受到，多数情况下，幼稚的人才谈对错，强者只考虑利害
What I truly feel is that, most of the time, only the naive talk about right and wrong, while the strong only consider gains and losses
学习这些金融或非金融的知识，主要目的是能够自行判断当前与未来局势，而不必轻易听信网络上“专家”的分析：毕竟，就算是对的，他们的分析（或鸣哨）传到你这里也已晚了，自己的利益还是会受损，更何况绝大部分的分析都是狗屁
Learning these financial or non-financial knowledge is mainly aimed at being able to independently assess the current and future situation, without easily relying on "experts" analysis on the internet: after all, even if they are correct, their analysis (or alarm) reaching you is already too late, your own interests will still be harmed, not to mention that the vast majority of analyses are nonsense
在一个一切都被定义好的国家里，统治者将诸如快乐、痛苦、背叛等给予清晰且不容改变的定义，此时其实这个国家就是乌托邦：社会上的一切丑恶现象，如贫穷和苦难，都根本不存在于此，没有律师这种职业，也没有城民愿意发动战争 --- 毕竟，独裁者掌握着语言的定义权，而人们思考是依托于语言的，这些所谓不好的事情，是没有词汇可以表达出来的，自然也不会存在，就算人们开始创造新词，统治者也可以将其“合法”的灭杀，只需找个“变异”或符合大众群体利益的借口罢了
In a state where everything is meticulously defined, the rulers provide clear and unchangeable definitions for concepts such as happiness, pain, betrayal, and, in essence, this state becomes a utopia. In such a society, all the ugly phenomena, such as poverty and suffering, simply do not exist. There is no profession like lawyers, and there are no citizens willing to wage wars. After all, the dictator holds the power of defining language, and people's thoughts rely on language. Those so-called undesirable things have no vocabulary to express them, and therefore, they do not exist. Even if people start creating new words, the rulers can simply "legally" eliminate them, with the excuse of being "deviant" or not in the interest of the majority
对大独裁者而言，底层群体中家庭的存在到底对其有利还是有弊？我认为独裁者是希望消灭家庭的：猪圈老板与猪圈里的猪并非同物种，但可以是同物种 --- 消灭了家庭更有利于猪的繁衍不是么？难道300年前欧洲人希望黑人有家庭？家庭的出现难道不是一定程度上法治的表现？
For a great dictator, is the presence of families in the lower strata of society beneficial or detrimental? I believe that dictators aim to eliminate families: The owner of a pigsty and the pigs inside are not of the same species, but they can be of the same species — eliminating families would be more favorable for the propagation of the pigs, wouldn't it? Did European people 300 years ago really want Black people to have families? Isn't the presence of families to some extent an expression of the rule of law?
问：中国为什么拍不出《奥本海默》？
答：
萧光琰(1920-1968)，芝加哥大学物理化学博士，美孚公司化学师，1951年回大陆
董铁宝(1917-1968)，计算数学家，参与世界上第一代计算机研制，1956年回大陆
陈绍澧(1925-1968)，衣阿华州大学化工硕士，1950年回大陆
周华章(1917-1968)，芝加哥大学数理经济学博士，1953年回大陆
林鸿荪(1925-1968)，布朗大学数学硕士，1950年回大陆
程世祜(1918-1968)，伊里诺伊理工学院力学博士1955年回大陆
陈天池(1918-1968)，路易斯安那大学博士，南开大学物理二系创始人，1950年回大陆
姚桐斌(1922-1968)，伯明翰大学工学博士，1958年回大陆
就算是杨振宁（1957年诺奖），于敏和邓稼先，那时候要是敢回来也一样是死：中国不配有人才

Question: Why can't China produce an "Oppenheimer"?
Answer:
Xiao Guangyan (1920-1968), a Ph.D. in physical chemistry from the University of Chicago, a chemist at Mobil Corporation, returned to the mainland in 1951.
Dong Tiebao (1917-1968), a computational mathematician who participated in the development of the world's first-generation computers, returned to the mainland in 1956.
Chen Shaoli (1925-1968), a master's degree holder in chemical engineering from the University of Iowa, returned to the mainland in 1950.
Zhou Huazhang (1917-1968), a Ph.D. in mathematical economics from the University of Chicago, returned to the mainland in 1953.
Lin Hongsun (1925-1968), a master's degree holder in mathematics from Brown University, returned to the mainland in 1950.
Cheng Shihu (1918-1968), a Ph.D. in mechanics from the Illinois Institute of Technology, returned to the mainland in 1955.
Chen Tianchi (1918-1968), a Ph.D. holder from Louisiana State University and the founder of the Department of Physics at Nankai University, returned to the mainland in 1950.
Yao Tongbin (1922-1968), a Ph.D. in engineering from the University of Birmingham, returned to the mainland in 1958.
Even if it were Yang Zhenning, Yu Min, and Deng Jiaxian, if they had dared to return during that time, they would have met the same fate: China didn't deserve talent
中国人依旧在被旧中国的思想束缚着，永远都在逃避一个“我”，不希望任何事直接与“我”扯上关系。在雪崩发生时，没有一片雪花是无辜的，但雪崩就算发生了又能怎样呢？泥沙俱下呗，反正受苦受难的又不是就我一个。即使是遇到了纯粹属于自己的事了，依旧还是一个字，逃，要么就推卸责任，想想生孩子和养孩子？盼望着出现一个青天大老爷，为自己主持公道，不是靠救世主就是靠神仙皇帝，靠别人，反正就是不敢靠自己。这样驱使下，只能出卖自己的一切，去讨好自己认为自己能靠得住的人。这也是为什么社会出现整容风潮，露胸露大腿，因为只有这样，才能招揽靠山，找到自己的皇上。敢问这个社会里有几个人做到了独立自主，自信担当呢？嘴硬是没用的，我也不认为自己在这其中。社会主义本来就是反人性的，在中国的社会几千年来的皇帝文化下，人就应该分为三六九等，有主子，有奴才，现在告诉那些奴才说他们被解放了，可是这难道不才是谋财害命吗？没了主子，那些奴才靠谁啊？
Chinese people are still bound by the thoughts of old China, constantly avoiding the concept of "self," not wanting anything to be directly associated with "me." When an avalanche happens, no snowflake is innocent, but what can you do when the avalanche occurs? Everything comes crashing down, and it's not just me who suffers. Even when faced with something that is purely one's own responsibility, it's still one word: escape. Either that or shifting the blame (having children and raising them?) Hoping for a savior to appear, someone to bring justice, either relying on a messiah or a god-like emperor, relying on someone else, but never daring to rely on oneself. Driven by this mentality, one can only sell out everything, trying to please those whom they believe can be relied upon. This is also why there's a trend of cosmetic surgery, revealing cleavage and thighs, because only by doing so can one attract a powerful protector and find their own "emperor." I dare to ask, how many people in this society truly achieve independence, self-confidence, and responsibility? Having a tough mouth isn't enough, and I don't consider myself among those who have achieved it. Socialism is inherently against human nature. Under China's thousands of years of emperor culture, people were always divided into different classes: masters and servants. Now, they tell those servants that they've been liberated, but isn't this just another form of exploitation? Without masters, who are those servants supposed to rely on?
问：为什么绝大多数国家不对中国免签？
就不说国际关系政治层面的东西了，说一千道一万，港澳都回归多少年了，内地居民去港澳还得通行证，可停留时间比欧美游客还短，自己的国土都要防着自己人，还指望其他发达国家？看看厄瓜多尔的例子，刚开始（2016年）对中国免签之后，一下子就涌入1.1万人，吓的厄瓜多尔政府赶紧叫停，后来搞明白这些人的目的地原来是美国。要是开免签了，新加坡这种发达国家有这么多华人，就不会是中转地，而是目的地了。一句话总结：移民倾向太强导致的
所以：你们到底懂不懂一个国家有四种货币的含金量啊？（中国有4种货币：红币，新台币，港币，澳元，还有7种护照：港澳台京照，公务，公务普通，外交）遥遥领先
Question: Why do the vast majority of countries not grant visa-free access to China?
Setting aside the aspects of international relations and politics, let's discuss this from a different perspective. It has been many years since the return of Hong Kong and Macau, yet mainland residents still require permits to visit these regions, and their allowed stay is even shorter than that of European and American tourists. The fact that a country has to monitor its own citizens even within its own territory raises questions about its expectations from other developed nations. Take the example of Ecuador; when they initially granted visa-free access to Chinese citizens in 2016, they were suddenly flooded with 11,000 people. This alarmed the Ecuadorian government, and they swiftly put a stop to it. It later became clear that many of these people were actually heading to the United States. If visa-free access were granted, countries like Singapore, with a significant Chinese population, might become not just transit points but actual destinations. In summary, it's due to the strong inclination towards immigration.
So, do you understand the significance of a country having four types of currency? (China has four currencies: Renminbi, New Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar, Macanese Pataca, and seven types of passports: Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and Mainland Passports, also Passport for Public Affairs, Service Passport and Diplomatic passport) CHINA IS LEADING THE WORLD
关于为什么中国盖了那么多楼却又炸掉一大批的笑话：
地方官：和大人这对花瓶可是珍宝啊，世界上就剩下这一对了
和珅：啪，摔了一个
地方官：和大人，您这是
和珅：这下只剩一个了，更值钱了

同样的，下面这个笑话更现代也更真实：
地方政府官员问：这出生率这么低，没有了新生学校都招不满，周边学区房又要掉价了这可怎么办
地方政府一把手：10个学校招不满，那1个学校总可以招满吧，把学区范围扩大，再拆几个学校就行了！

Regarding the joke about why China builds so many buildings and then demolishes a large batch:
Local Official: Your Excellency, these vases are treasures. They're the last pair in the world.
Heshen: Oops, just dropped one.
Local Official: Your Excellency, what...
Heshen: Now there's only one left, it is more valuable

Similarly, here's a more modern and realistic joke:
Local Government Official: The birthrate is so low, we can't fill the new schools, so property values in the surrounding school districts are dropping. What should we do?
Top Local Government Official: If 10 schools can't fill up, then surely one can. Expand the school district boundaries, and we'll just demolish a few schools!
接着上一个话题，房子拆了就拆了，成本没多少的，其实房子本身并不值钱，只有卖给百姓的时候才值钱
Continuing with the previous topic, actually the demolished houses are not that costly. In reality, the houses themselves aren't worth much; they only become valuable when sold to the people
中国历史上，每一个周期大约300年左右，每一个轮回的终点，都会伴随的垄断资本官僚的形成，就像红楼梦描述的明末史一样，只不过区别是，随着社会生产力的巨大发展，这个轮回周期越来越短了
In Chinese history, there has been a recurring cycle, roughly every 300 years, marked by the formation of monopolistic capital bureaucracies. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the description of late Ming Dynasty in the novel "Dream of the Red Chamber." However, the key difference is that with the significant development of social productive forces, these cycles have become shorter over time
百足之虫，死而不僵，大国，若从外头杀来，一时是杀不死的，必须先从家里自杀自灭起来，才能一败涂地
The centipede, even in death, does not stiffen. A great nation, if attacked from the outside, cannot be easily defeated. It must first self-destruct from within before it can meet its downfall
以结果为导向是一种折磨着我们所有人的常规思维模式，在结果和决策质量之间建立过于紧密的联系会影响我们的日常决策。可以问问自己：回想一下去年做过的最佳和最差决策是什么？是不是最佳决策带来了一个好结果，而最差决策导致了一个坏结果？
Being results-oriented is a mindset that torments all of us. Establishing too close a connection between results and decision quality can affect our daily decision-making. You can ask yourself: Can you recall the best and worst decisions you made last year? Did the best decision lead to a good outcome, while the worst decision resulted in a bad outcome?
中国（以及世界上）有非常多极其成功的企业家都迷信，这并不是因为他们不聪明，而是他们这几十年一路辛辛苦苦走过来之后发现，自己基于各种分析和预测做出的重要决定并不一定成功，反而甚至是一些完全相反的、被逼无奈的、随意做的决定促成了自己今天的成就。这是因为世俗的成功是一件非常复杂的事，有太多未知的信息，自己拼尽全力也许只能抓住一两成的胜率，所以运气是极其重要的，迷信也未尝不可
In China (as well as around the world), many highly successful entrepreneurs are superstitious. This is not because they lack intelligence, but rather because, after decades of hard work, they have discovered that some of the most critical decisions they made based on various analyses and predictions didn't necessarily lead to success. In fact, some of their achievements today can be attributed to decisions that were completely opposite, forced by circumstances, or made arbitrarily. This is because "success" is an incredibly complex matter with too many unknown variables. Even with their best efforts, they may only be able to grasp a one or two percent chance of success. Therefore, luck plays an extremely important role, and superstition is not entirely unreasonable
当你想确定自己接收到的某个信息到底是不是真实的时候，问问自己：敢不敢去跟别人赌这个事情
When you want to ascertain whether a piece of information you've received is true or not, ask yourself: Are you willing to bet on it with someone else?
不要与轴的人谈观点谈对错，而要谈目标
Don't discuss opinions or right and wrong with people who are biased; instead, talk about goals
小盗窃珠，大盗窃国；窃珠者诛，窃国者诸侯
A small thief steals a pearl, a big thief steals a nation; the one who steals a pearl is executed, while the one who steals a nation becomes a lord
富与好不能共享，责任却需要平摊
Wealth and goodness cannot be shared, but responsibilities must be distributed equally
问：资本还是权力才是民众最大的敌人？
答：王思聪打你一拳，他赔了你208万；崔主任入室殴打你，到现在都没个说法
Question: Is it capital or power that is the biggest enemy of the people?
Answer: If Wang Sicong punches you, he compensates you with 2.08 million Chinese yuan; if Director Cui breaks into your room and beats you, there is still no explanation to this day
忘记历史等于背叛，记住历史等于犯罪
Forgetting history is betrayal, remembering history is a crime
街头打架（或任何蓄意斗殴等）的五大原则：
1. 一对一一对二或一对多，第一想法必须是跑，拼了命的跑，实在跑不了再开打，就算开打也是绕着打，尽量每次都一对一
2. 一旦决定开打，如果自己不能把握能轻易的制服对方（比如快速击打下巴或任何柔术的降服等），则必须以杀掉对方为目的打，能把鼻子打凹就不要只在脸上打几圈拳，能抱摔接足球踢就不要侧踢：一直到对方完全失去还手能力才可停手
3. 一对二（一对三及以上几乎可以不用考虑）时，尽量紧着其中一个狠狠的打，不要一上来就雨露均沾
4. 对方有刀的话（有枪的话只能祈祷了），一定要遛要跑，跑的过程中持刀者很难做出伤害举动，甚至可能重心不稳。跑不了时不能虚直接面对刀即可，此时持刀者才更应该害怕！因为如果他没练过刀法不能稳准狠的直接杀掉你，那么死的很可能就是他自己
5. 千万不要自信，除非已处于完全走投无路必死的状态，否则打架中永远不要自信，且永远不要做不熟悉的击打动作
金融是对内的掠夺，战争则是对外的掠夺
Finance is plunder within the country, while war is plunder outside the country
所谓移民潮其实就是两种人，财富精英和知识精英，当他们移民的时候带走了财富和知识，如果一个国家的财富和知识被带走了那留下的是贫穷和愚昧，那么一个贫穷和愚昧的国家需要的是什么呢？它需要一个皇上
The so-called migration tide actually consists of two types of people: the wealth elite and the knowledge elite. When they emigrate, they take away wealth and knowledge. If a country's wealth and knowledge are taken away, what remains is poverty and ignorance. So, what does a poor and ignorant country need? It needs an emperor
如果你能像坐牢一样做一件事一整年，大概率这事能成
If you can do something for a whole year as if you were in prison, there's a high chance you will succeed in it
儒家思想严重阻碍了中国科学体系的进步，讲格物致知, 但格物致知的最终目的是平治天下，是以统治者的角度让老百姓闭嘴，一切为了现实的社会的生活，所以这里没有真正的科学思维，这是我们我们文化传统的严重缺失，包括老子的道也是一样。古希腊的哲学家都是科学家出身的，比如毕达哥拉斯就是数学家，而我们没有这样的科学传统，我们也从来不讨论第一推动力。我们的文化传统是不提倡怀疑，不提倡批判，不提倡分析，不提倡实证，这些都不提倡，哪来的科学？很多人所谓的爱国主义开口就是四大发明，但这些发明全部是技术啊！哪有科学？技术思想的发展有助于统治阶级更好的剥削，而只有科学思想才能让百姓真正变得理性随后进步。中华文明缺失了科学和宗教，这是我们的问题 - 来自：易中天
Confucian thought seriously hindered the progress of the Chinese scientific system. It speaks of 'investigating things to extend knowledge', but the ultimate goal of this is to govern the world peacefully, from the perspective of the rulers to silence the common people. Everything is for the practical social life, so there is no real scientific thinking here. This is a serious deficiency in our cultural tradition, including Laozi's Tao. The philosophers of ancient Greece were all scientists by training, such as Pythagoras being a mathematician, while we do not have such a scientific tradition and we never discuss the Prime Mover. Our cultural tradition does not advocate doubt, criticism, analysis, or empiricism, and without these, where does science come from? Many people’s so-called patriotism starts with the Four Great Inventions, but these inventions are all technologies! Where is the science? The development of technological thought helps the ruling class to exploit better, but only scientific thinking can make the people truly rational and then progressive. Chinese civilization lacks both science and religion, which is our problem." - From: Yi Zhongtian
当一个目标长久地达不到的时候，人们便会以为那目标就是一切，它远远地看起来是那样的辉煌美丽。而当这目标一下子矗立于眼前，只需一抬手就可以握住的时候，失落感便在瞬间降临了。他会怀疑自己一向追索的这个目标，是不是真有这么重要的价值。
When a goal remains unattainable for a long time, people tend to perceive it as everything, shining brilliantly in the distance. However, when this goal suddenly stands before them, within easy reach with just a hand's reach, a sense of loss descends instantly. They may doubt if this goal they have pursued for so long holds such significant value after all
我们往往会在犹豫和徘徊之间，错过一个又一个机会，好不容易理清了脉络之后，我们猛的发现，人生也进入了下一个阶段，我们也需要掌握新的人生技巧了
We often, in hesitation and hesitation, miss one opportunity after another. After finally sorting out the context with great difficulty, we suddenly realize that life has entered the next stage, and we also need to master new life skills
智商高的人通常在打工，情商高的人通常做老板
People with high IQs usually work for others, while those with high emotional intelligence often become enterpreneurs
什么样的孩子在社会上最难立足？
老实的孩子：没有家底，却有家教。法家锁喉，儒家插肋
What kind of children find it most challenging to establish themselves in society?
Honest children: They lack a wealthy background but have good upbringing. Legalism stifles them, and Confucianism restricts their freedom.
安逸使人麻痹，绝对的安逸使人绝对的麻痹
Comfort induces numbness. Absolute comfort leads to absolute numbness
史铁生：拖延最大的坏处不是耽误时间，而是会使自己变得犹豫，甚至丧失信心。不管什么事，决定了就立刻去做，这本身就能使人生机勃勃，保持一种主动和快乐的心情
Shi Tiesheng: The greatest harm of procrastination is not wasting time but making oneself hesitate and even lose confidence. No matter what it is, deciding and immediately taking action can bring vitality to life, maintaining a proactive and joyful mindset
判断一件事的真假，最后依靠的不是科学，而是权力与民意的博弈，这是走下坡路的一个特征
Determining the truth of a matter ultimately relies not on science but on the power play between authority and public opinion. This is a characteristic of a downhill path
"疯狂"的一个定义可以是，一遍又一遍地做同一件事情，却期待着不同的结果
One definition of "insanity" can be repeatedly doing the same thing while expecting different results
历朝历代，盛极而衰
Through the ages, decline is after the glory
为什么古代的皇帝宁可把百姓逼得造反，也不肯盘剥的轻一点？因为古代的皇帝根本就不觉得百姓造反是自己盘剥造成的。一般王朝在初期的时候，皇帝还会关心一下民间疾苦，可是到了中后期，皇帝从小就长在深宫里，哪里知道百姓的生活是怎样的？他们获取信息的唯一渠道就是官员的汇报，官员会怎么说呢？他们会告诉皇帝，普天之下，莫非王土，老百姓能吃上饭，全是您的皇恩浩荡；他们会告诉皇帝，你是古往今来少有的圣明君主，那些造反的都是刁民，所以皇帝根本就不会觉得自己是在盘剥百姓。崇祯皇帝到死也不相信，李自成的起义军里都是被自己逼得吃不上饭、不得不造反的百姓。这些官员还会告诉皇帝，那些造反的刁民不足为患，陈胜吴广的起义军都快打到咸阳了，秦二世还以为那是小部分刁民在闹事。还有就是随着封建王朝的发展，地方上的军阀势力就会不断的发展，朝廷为了维护自己的权威，就得压制这些地方势力，但是这需要庞大的财政开支，比如唐朝的中后期，藩镇势力就非常强大，朝廷为了活命，必须得训练自己的军队，训练军队就必须得有钱，而且到了王朝后期，朝廷要养的人也是越来越多，比如明朝到了末期的时候，光是宗室的人口就有20多万，这些人全靠朝廷供养，还得好吃好喝，大鱼大肉的供着，本来朝廷只安排了三个人的编制，但是有二三十个人在上班，这些人的钱从哪来呢，只能靠盘剥百姓，而皇帝也不能把这些人全撤职，因为这样搞大概率会失控，所以只能继续苦一苦百姓。真是应了那句老话：百姓就是盛世的牛马，乱世的炮灰啊
Ancient emperors drove commoners to rebellion instead of alleviating exploitation because they failed to acknowledge their role in uprisings. In later dynastic stages, emperors, secluded in palaces, relied on reports from officials, who portrayed them as benevolent rulers and dismissed rebels as troublemakers. Economic pressures, the ascent of local warlords, and the need for a substantial army imposed significant financial burdens. To sustain the expanding imperial family and maintain control, the court resorted to exploiting the common people, perpetuating the notion that in both prosperous and troubled times, the common people were pawns
养过牲口的都知道，牛脾气大，耐力强，能干重活，但就是太慢了，效率低。马能拉能跑，但是耐力不行，干久了就容易累趴下。鱼呢速度耐力都不错，但就是脾气太重了，容易撂挑子。猪呢浑身都是宝，但是要求太高了，吃住稍微差一点就不长膘，还容易生病。于是我就在想，有没有一种牲口能干活，脾气好，吃得少，容易饱，效率高，要求低，得了病还能自己治，如果有的话，那就是最先进的一种牲口了，于是我查遍了互联网的每个角落，可惜的是都没找到这样的牲口，直到有一天，我在水沟里看到了自己的倒影
Those who have raised livestock all know: cattle have a calm temperament and strong endurance, suitable for heavy work but are slow, with low efficiency. Horses can pull and run, but lack endurance and easily tire. Fish have good speed and endurance, but their temperament is difficult, prone to giving up. Pigs are valuable overall, but have high demands; a slight change in diet or living conditions affects their growth, and they are prone to illness
So, I began to wonder if there is a type of livestock that can work hard, has a good temperament, eats little, gets satisfied easily, is efficient, has low demands, and can even heal itself if it gets sick. If such livestock exists, it would be the most advanced type. I searched every corner of the internet, but unfortunately, I couldn't find such livestock. Until one day, I saw my own reflection in the ditch
美国为什么能够赢得冷战呢，因为在华盛顿不用排队买面包啊。其实苏联从一开始就全方位的落后，在苏联最强大的70年代，名义上GDP是美国的70%，实际不到美国的一半，莫斯科1970年的生活水平，还不如1940年的纽约，相差了30年。之所以看起来旗鼓相当，是因为双方的体质不同，苏联是战争体制，社会的所有经济活动都是以战争为目的，几乎没有其他方面的消耗，而美国是和平体制，二战结束后就自废武功，军事产能在社会中可以忽略不计。在太平洋战争爆发前，日本的海军规模是美国海军的70%，珍珠港事件后，美国开启了全员动员，军事产能瞬间提高了十倍，只用了一年时间就达到了日本的三倍，到了1945年，日军的装备规模只有美国的一个零头了，而这个时期的美国还没实行国民军事一体化，老百姓不但可以歌舞升平，连体育联赛都没有停止，苏联只有不断的积累核武器，以同归于尽来威慑全世界。衡量一个国家的实力，不是看他的外表，而是看他的民众，国强不一定民强，但是民强国一定强，但人们高度富裕又人人尚武，只需国家一声吼就能团结起来，爆发出排山倒海的力量，爱国不过是人们自发团结的表象，苏联的爱国主义从上至下，美国的爱国主义从下至上，崇尚自由的人们，一旦团结一致，自由便会引领人们达到无法想象的高度
Why could the United States win the Cold War? Because in Washington, there was no need to stand in line to buy bread. In fact, the Soviet Union was disadvantaged from the beginning. In the Soviet Union's strongest period in the 1970s, its nominal GDP was 70% of the United States, but in reality, it was less than half of the United States. Moscow's standard of living in 1970 was not even as good as New York's in 1940, a difference of 30 years
The apparent equality was due to the different systems; the Soviet Union operated on a war footing, with all economic activities focused on war, almost no other consumption. In contrast, the United States adopted a peacetime system, demobilizing after World War II, and military capacity was negligible in society. Before the outbreak of the Pacific War, Japan's navy was 70% the size of the U.S. navy. After the Pearl Harbor incident, the U.S. initiated full mobilization, increasing military capacity tenfold in just a year, surpassing Japan threefold by 1945. During this time, the U.S. did not implement total military integration, and the citizens enjoyed prosperity, even continuing sports leagues. The Soviet Union, on the other hand, only accumulated nuclear weapons to deter the world with mutual destruction
Measuring a country's strength is not about appearance but its people. A strong country doesn't necessarily mean strong citizens, but strong citizens make a country strong. When highly affluent and martial, a simple call from the nation can unite the people, unleashing tremendous power. Patriotism is not just a spontaneous unity; in the Soviet Union, it was top-down, while in the United States, it was bottom-up. Advocating freedom, people, once united, can reach unimaginable heights
人的分享欲远低于纠错欲，所以当你想问一个问题的时候，直接说一个错误的例子，这样大家就会把正确的告诉你了
The desire for sharing is far lower than the desire for correction in people. So, when you want to ask a question, directly present a wrong example; this way, people will tell you the correct one
无论怎么样，用一个普通的方法做一件事，只会得到一个普通的结果，包括持之以恒的学习最后看似一飞冲天，实则不过是普通结果的加总罢了。想要得到超凡的结果，在了解完概况后，必须做那些别人看不懂的操作
In any case, doing something in a conventional way will only yield ordinary results. Even persistent learning, which may seem to skyrocket eventually, is essentially just the sum of ordinary results. To achieve extraordinary results, after understanding the basics, one must perform actions that others cannot comprehend
一个客户很难缠，很可能恰好说明这客户有价值。就像一个好妞，那必然是难泡到的。虽然内心深处我并不认可女生的那句“我如果好追那他就不珍惜了”，但这确实是有道理的：除非是经验丰富懂得自己几斤几两懂得见好就收懂得过日子的人，否则他的确不太会珍惜一个轻松追到手的妹子，而且会误认为自己很牛逼
A challenging client precisely indicates a valuable client, just like a good girl who is naturally hard to pursue. Though deep down, I may not agree with the statement, "If I'm easy to chase, then he won't cherish me," it does make sense. Unless someone is experienced, understands their own worth, and knows what's valuable, they won't truly appreciate a girl who is easily won over. Moreover, they might mistakenly think highly of themselves
主流舆论一直误导大众去相信，时间越推向过去，人类社会越落后，所以人类越不幸福。实际上正好相反，人类所谓的进步，其实只是不平等的加剧。工业时代带来的城市贫民比农业时代的底层农民更可怜更辛苦，农业时代的底层农民比游牧时代的人更辛苦劳动时间更长。物质更丰富并不导致更幸福，更别提分配的如此不均了
The mainstream public opinion has always misled the public to believe that as time progresses towards the past, human society regresses, leading to greater unhappiness for humanity. In reality, it's quite the opposite. What is perceived as human progress is actually exacerbating inequality. The urban poor brought about by the industrial age are even more impoverished and toil harder than the bottom-tier farmers of the agricultural age, who in turn worked harder and longer than those in the nomadic era. Increased material wealth doesn't necessarily lead to greater happiness, not to mention the glaring inequality in its distribution
康熙视察，问路边挑菜的老人你们生活怎么样，老人回答：很好，官府清廉，百姓安居乐业。康熙又带着疑惑问，“那我看你一把年纪了还在干重活，不像是生活好的样子”，老人便答：“原来你能看出来啊，能看出来还问，不就是想听我说这句官员清廉百姓生活美吗”
During Emperor Kangxi's inspection, he asked an elderly man picking vegetables by the roadside about their livelihood. The old man replied, "Very good, the government is honest, and the people live in peace and prosperity." Kangxi, still perplexed, asked, "But you are elderly and still doing heavy work. It doesn't seem like a good life." The old man responded, "So you could tell, and yet you still asked. You just wanted to hear me say that officials are honest and the people live well, didn't you?"
可以失去一段关系，但绝不能失去自我
You can lose a relationship, but you must never lose yourself
不能脱离政府来谈经济，是理解中国经济的根本出发点
The fundamental starting point for understanding the Chinese economy is that it cannot be divorced from the government
中国人的财富压舱石是房子，而美国人的财富压舱石是金融资产，所以中国拼了命保房市，而美国拼了命股市
For Chinese people, the cornerstone of wealth lies in real estate, whereas for Americans, it lies in financial assets. Therefore, China goes all out to protect the housing market, while the United States goes all out to protect the stock market
对皇上来说，开展劳民伤财的活动受到了民众不满，但”话不妨说，错不妨认，事不妨照做不误，老百姓嘛，就是整这个理，让他们气顺了，过一会也就忘了，这事也就能做成了“
For the emperor, engaging in laborious and costly activities that incur public discontent, but "words can be said, mistakes can be admitted, and actions can proceed without hindrance. As for the common people, that's just how they are managed. Let them vent their anger, and in a while, they'll forget about it. Then the matter can be accomplished"
我们中国人大多是没有追求的，我们常爱说的一句话叫“过日子”，可日子是用来过的吗？为什么结婚“能过日子就行”？我们既不痛快地活，也不爽快的死，我们还给予这样的生活美称“顺其自然”，但这不就是没有追求吗？也难怪，毕竟中央集权了几千年，本就不允许下等公民有任何想法，但作为个体，一定要有独立意识
Most of us Chinese lack aspirations. There's a common phrase we like to say, "live your life," but is life meant to just be lived? Why settle for "making do" in marriage? We neither live joyfully nor die easily. We label this kind of life as "going with the flow," but isn't that just a lack of ambition? It's no surprise, considering the centralization of power for thousands of years, which never allowed lower-class citizens to have any thoughts. But as individuals, we must have independent consciousness
一个人想要变得超乎常人的强大，则必须在某3-5年里，疯狂的行动，高密度的锻炼，这个锻炼可能有在人性上的历练，在勇气上的磨练，在专业技能上的考验，总之就是千万不能停，只要停下了那就凉了，能量和智商就会开始下降，在这3-5年，日日不断深耕，日复一日的死磕，不要情绪化，努力干活，累了就换种方式继续干，一直行动下去
这世界上没有任何一件行动力不足的事情，所有行动力不足的事都来自于精确性的不足，百姓生活中的不幸，基本也都是从丧失精确性开始的，因为人基因中就包含对未知的恐惧，而那些现实中行动力很垃圾的人很可能并不是好吃懒做，也不是害怕事情本身，而是畏惧于事物的模糊性。如果你要一件事发生，那就只需要凑齐这件事发生的所有要素即可，当你提高了对客观世界评估的精确性，一切你觉得不如拖一拖或者遥不可及的事情都会变得很简单
To become exceptionally strong, one must engage in intense action and rigorous training for a period of 3-5 years. This training may involve trials of character, tests of courage, and challenges in developing professional skills. The key is to never stop; as soon as you halt, you start to decline in energy and intellect. During these 3-5 years, one must continually dig deep, persist day after day, and avoid getting emotional. Work hard, and when tired, find new ways to continue. Keep moving forward relentlessly
There's nothing in this world that lacks action; all lack of action stems from a lack of precision. Most misfortunes in people's lives start with a loss of precision, as humans are genetically predisposed to fear the unknown. Those lacking in action are often not lazy or afraid of the tasks themselves but rather fear the ambiguity of things. If you want something to happen, gather all the necessary elements for it to occur. When you improve your precision in assessing the objective world, everything you once thought was challenging or out of reach will become simple
勤劳为什么不能致富
一个段子说的是，如果拜佛有用，那么你连门都进不去；如果有长生不老的药，那马云都没资格买；如果种地可以赚钱，那么农民将无地可种；如果大便被资本控制了，那么你将失去屁股的使用权和控制权；如果彩票真的能中奖，那就不会有几十年两块钱一注的成本；如果勤劳能致富，挑大粪也得送礼走关系。世界上基本所有的百姓都是驴，给上层人士拉磨以求得糊口，老板夸一句拉的真好驴就瞬间来精神了拉的更快了，晚上主人在屋里吃饭，教育小孩说道，你可千万不要学那头蠢驴，它这一辈子只知道围着磨盘转，同时驴回到家吃着玉米杆对它的孩子说，你要快快长大快快学习如何拉磨，拉磨是受人尊敬的职业，看见爸爸的努力了吗，只有勤劳工作才能过上幸福的日子啊！
借用洛克菲勒的话说，整天工作的人是发不了财的，财富是对认知的补偿，而不是对勤奋的奖赏。勤奋工作是苦力，而财富靠的是脑力。我们最重要的一点就是要看重自己，千万不能廉价地出卖自己
勤劳既然不能致富那为何这么多人还信呢？那当然了，从统计学和博弈论角度来看，大部分人本身也都不可能都懂这个道理，如果大部分都懂了，那就会有新的更深刻的道理寻常百姓还没看透；如果连驴都觉醒了，谁来拉磨呢？所以啦，自私的我肯定希望拉磨的人越多越好啦，但事实并不依我的主观意志而改变。所以，勤劳还是能致富的！
勤劳不能致富还有一个原因就是，当劳累到了一定程度，人是没有时间和精力去思考什么是未来什么是眼界什么是真相谁在骗我。当生存成了奢侈品的时候，世界的繁华和风景对你都是摆设，根本没有心思去思考，故，千万不要赞美苦难
王朔都说，这个世界上最阴险最歹毒的正能量，就是用穷人的艰辛和苦难当做励志故事来愚弄底层之人
想到什么啦？“教师是阳光下最光辉的职业，军人是最受尊敬的国家卫士！”

Why Can't Hard Work Make You Wealthy
A joke goes like this: If praying to Buddha worked, you wouldn't even be able to enter the temple gates; if there were an elixir of immortality, even Jack Ma wouldn't be qualified to buy it; if farming could make money, then farmers would have no land to cultivate; if capitalism controlled defecation, you would lose the right and control over your own buttocks; if lottery tickets really made you win, they wouldn't cost a couple of dollars per ticket for decades; if hard work could make you wealthy, even dung collectors would have to give gifts and cultivate relationships. Basically, all the common folks in the world are like donkeys, pulling the millstone for the upper class just to make ends meet. When the boss compliments the donkey saying it's doing a good job, it instantly perks up and pulls even faster. At night, while the master is eating in the house, educating the children, they say, "You must never be like that foolish donkey, all it knows in life is going around the millstone." Meanwhile, the donkey returns home and tells its children while munching on corn husks, "You must grow up quickly and learn how to pull the millstone. Pulling the millstone is a respected profession. Have you seen how hard daddy works? Only through diligent work can you live a happy life!"
To borrow Rockefeller's words, those who work all day will never get rich. Wealth compensates for cognition, not diligence. Diligent work is labor, while wealth depends on intellect. The most important thing for us is to value ourselves, never cheapen ourselves
Since hard work can't make you wealthy, why do so many people still believe in it? Of course, from the perspective of statistics and game theory, most people themselves are unlikely to understand this truth. If most people did, there would be new, deeper truths yet to be understood by the common folk. If even the donkeys awaken, who will pull the millstone? So, selfishly speaking, I would certainly hope for more people to pull the millstone, but reality doesn't change according to my subjective will. Therefore, hard work can still make you wealthy!
Another reason why hard work can't make you wealthy is that when exhaustion reaches a certain level, people have no time or energy to think about what the future holds, what broad horizons are, what truth is, or who is deceiving them. When survival becomes a luxury, the world's prosperity and scenery are all decorations to you, and there's simply no inclination to ponder. Hence, never praise hardship
Wang Shuo said it best: the most insidious and malicious positive energy in the world is to use the hardships and sufferings of the poor as inspirational stories to deceive the lower class
What does this remind you of? "Teachers are the most radiant profession under the sun, soldiers are the most respected guardians of the nation!"
中美的历史谁更长？
可能很多人会觉得美国没有太多的底蕴，就是一个毛孩子200多年的历史，在中国面前的就是一个小学生。但当我们讨论中国的时候，我们其实把很多东西都算上了，比如说春秋战国时代，而他们在生物学上跟我们有关系吗，可能也有但没那么大，就像我是北方人，大多数的祖先跟孔子压根没什么关系，甚至是他们的敌人，毕竟大部分都是鲜卑人，匈奴人，契丹人，蒙古人，还有满洲人的后代，跟汉人没有太多的血缘上的关系，但我们仍然会认为自己是华夏子孙，或者认为是孔子教导出来的这样一批人，因为这就是统治者统治的基础，需要给人们一个精神基础，所以说我们历史长，不如说我们百姓被连续统治的时间长
从这个角度上看美国的文明：它的文化源头来自欧洲，是经过了文艺复兴的，而复兴的是3000多年前的古希腊文明，所以从国家观念上说，美国这个地方人的源流更长。而从现代国家（政权制度）建立的角度上说，美国是18世纪，而中国的是20世纪：中国比美国年轻得多
所以，从文化上讲，如果把国家定为一种思想和文化的传承，那中美的年龄是差不多的，一个是古中华文明的传承，一个是古希腊罗马埃及文明的传承；如果是按国家，则是美国要老一点，毕竟有200多年历史，而且放眼全世界也没几个国家能比美国长的，能跟他比的也只有英国法国欧洲那波了
毋庸置疑，中国仍然在追赶美国，有很多方面仍然是落后的，但最落后的，绝不是科技
Whose history is longer, China or the US?
Many people might think that the United States doesn't have much depth, just a history of a little over 200 years, like a primary school student compared to China. But when we discuss China, we actually include many things, such as the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. Do they have any relevance to us biologically? Maybe to some extent, but not as significant. Like, I am from the north, most of my ancestors have nothing to do with Confucius, they might even have been his enemies, after all, most of them were Xianbei, Xiongnu, Khitan, Mongol, or descendants of the Manchus, with not much blood relationship with the Han people. Yet, we still consider ourselves descendants of the Chinese civilization, or as a group taught by Confucius. Because this is the basis of rulers' rule, they need to provide people with a spiritual foundation. So, when we say our history is long, it's more accurate to say that the time our people have been continuously ruled is long
Looking at American civilization from this perspective: its cultural origins are from Europe, influenced by the Renaissance, which revived the ancient Greek civilization over 3000 years ago. So, in terms of national consciousness, the lineage of people in America has a longer history. And from the perspective of the establishment of modern nations (political systems), America dates back to the 18th century, while China to the 20th century: China is much younger than America
Therefore, culturally speaking, if we define a nation as a continuation of ideas and culture, then the ages of China and the US are similar, one inherits the ancient Chinese civilization, the other inherits the ancient Greek-Roman-Egyptian civilization. If we consider nations as entities, then America is older, with over 200 years of history, and looking around the world, there are few countries that can compare in terms of age, only Britain, France, and those European countries
Undoubtedly, China is still catching up with America, there are many aspects where it still lags behind, but the most backward aspect is certainly not technology
人与人间大部分时候开的玩笑，都有认真的成分
Most of the jokes between people contain an element of seriousness
看万科债权人逼宫有感：纠缠我们半辈子的房子是不会轻易离开的，他只会换个方式存在，小心伪装成其他形形色色的金融产品
Observing the pressure from Vanke's creditors prompts a realization: The real estate that has entangled us for half a lifetime won't easily depart; it merely adopts a different guise, beware of disguising itself as various financial products
任何能够得到的东西，一旦被人为政策施加了限制，则一定会增值
Anything that can be obtained, once restrictions are imposed by human policies, will definitely increase in value
关于投资与收益：高收益要承受高风险这句话我觉得是不对的，因为收益并非完全来自于风险，最低级的level应该才是要靠承担更多的风险来获取更多的收益。在投资中，更多的收益应该来自于对事物本身的认知，即：高收益可能承受低风险，但一定有比一般人更牛逼的认识
Regarding investment and returns: I don't think the statement "high returns require high risk" is entirely correct because returns do not solely come from risk. The most basic level should be that one needs to take on more risk to gain more returns. In investing, higher returns should come from understanding the underlying factors, meaning high returns might involve low risk, but it definitely requires a more sophisticated understanding than the average person
我逐渐能感受到所谓的那些成功的人的几种共有的特质：
- 从不炫耀，非常果断
- 事以密成 - 好事一说准没
- 不要诉苦，人生就是哭给自己听，笑给别人看
- 不要改变任何人，唯一能改变别人的就是自己变得更好，有名有钱了说话分量才重
- 不在任何舒适圈中停留，不要停留在过去。相信凡事发生必有利我之处
I gradually sense several common traits among those so-called successful individuals:
- They never boast and are extremely decisive
- Actions speak louder than words - they don't just talk about good deeds
- They don't complain; they believe life is about crying to oneself and smiling for others
- They don't try to change others; the only way to change others is by improving oneself. Being influential comes from being successful and wealthy
- They don't linger in any comfort zone and refuse to dwell in the past. They believe that everything that happens will eventually benefit them
关于牛市与熊市：
估值不是泡沫的天花板，流动性和强烈正反馈造成的系统性不稳定才是，因为市场估值过高的时候还能再高，反正正反馈的结果都是自然对数指数函数，但流动性尤其是增量流动性不够的话，那泡沫就破了，而且这个泡沫破裂绝不会温柔，一定会暴涨暴跌，因为泡沫是由正反馈而来，在中后期时反馈会越来越强烈，一切都会被无限放大，所以一个小的波动都有可能造成十几个点的震荡。因此，波动性急剧上升，或者期权价格急剧上升，也是泡沫末期的一个特征，而预测泡沫破裂的时间点我觉得没人能做到，除非是这整个市场的庄家
Regarding bull and bear markets:
Valuation is not the ceiling of a bubble; systemic instability caused by liquidity and strong positive feedback is. When market valuation is excessively high, it can continue to rise due to the nature of positive feedback resulting in a natural logarithmic exponential function. However, if liquidity, especially incremental liquidity, is insufficient, the bubble bursts. Moreover, the burst of this bubble will not be gentle; it will inevitably experience sharp rises and falls because the bubble originates from positive feedback, which becomes increasingly intense in the mid to late stages, magnifying everything infinitely. Therefore, even a small fluctuation can cause great oscillations. Consequently, a sudden increase in volatility or option prices is also a characteristic of the late stage of a bubble. I believe predicting the timing of a bubble burst is impossible for anyone unless they are the manipulators of the entire market
There is no accident
Today is the most important moment